Trump’s $2,000 Payment Proposal: Experts Doubt Feasibility Amid Challenges

In a recent announcement, President Donald Trump unveiled a proposal promising Americans a $2,000 check, purportedly funded by tariffs. Financial experts, however, have raised significant doubts regarding the feasibility of this plan. Details of the Proposal On his Truth Social platform, Trump stated, “A dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” Despite this bold claim, the president did not specify income thresholds or whether children would also be eligible for these payments. Expert Opinions Experts from the financial and budgeting sectors have expressed skepticism about the numbers being proposed. Erika York, vice president of federal tax policy at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, stated, “The numbers just don’t check out.” The tariffs have generated an estimated $195 billion for the federal government, a substantial increase from $77 billion in 2024, according to the Associated Press. Despite this revenue boost, it does little to alleviate the national budget deficit, which currently stands at $1.8 trillion for the fiscal year 2025. Mathematical Misalignment John Ricco, an analyst from the Budget Lab at Yale University, pointed out that while Trump’s tariffs could yield between $200 billion to $300 billion annually, the cost of distributing $2,000 checks to every American adult would surpass $600 billion. He noted, “It’s clear that the revenue coming in would not be adequate.” The Census Bureau indicates there are about 258.3 million individuals aged 18 and older in the U.S., which means issuing checks to just adults would exceed $516 billion. Ricco emphasized that any proposal to distribute these payouts would also need Congressional authorization, further complicating the initiative. Economic Considerations Some economists argue that the tariffs are indirectly impacting consumers by raising the prices of goods. “If the goal is relief for Americans, just get rid of the tariffs,” recommended York from the Tax Foundation. Legal Challenges Recently, the Supreme Court has heard a challenge to Trump’s tariffs, which have been deemed illegal by three lower courts due to the misuse of emergency powers. If the Supreme Court decides against the tariffs, Trump’s administration may find itself in a position to issue refunds to businesses rather than disbursing checks to the public. Conflicting Views from Administration Officials During a Sunday political show, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked about the details of Trump’s $2,000 proposal; he suggested that the dividend could manifest in multiple ways, stating, “It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda.” During Trump’s first term, two stimulus checks were issued: one for $1,200 per taxpayer and $500 per child, and another for $600 per taxpayer and $600 per child. The parameters for the proposed checks remain uncertain, as Trump's earlier stimulus payments targeted individuals earning up to $75,000 and couples earning up to $150,000.