Rural Voters and Farmers Are Souring on Trump — And the Numbers Show It

For decades, rural America has been the political foundation that Republican presidential candidates — and Donald Trump in particular — have counted on to win elections. Now, new polling data suggests that foundation is showing serious cracks, and for many farmers, the reasons are painfully clear when they look at their bank accounts.

A Fox News poll conducted May 15–18, 2026, among 1,002 registered voters nationwide found that Trump's net approval rating among rural voters has dropped a staggering 34 points since early 2025 — falling from +20 to -14. That marks the first time in this polling series that rural voters have viewed Trump more negatively than positively. Among rural white voters specifically, the drop is nearly as sharp, sliding 33 points from +27 to -6.

What the Poll Actually Found

The survey was jointly conducted by Beacon Research, a Democratic-leaning firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-leaning firm, using a combination of phone calls and online responses. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, and respondents were drawn randomly from a national voter file to make the results as representative as possible.

Trump's overall approval rating came in at 39 percent — just one point above the lowest level recorded in this polling series. But the more telling story is what's happening within specific voter groups that have historically supported him most strongly.

On the economy — the issue that matters most to most voters — only 29 percent of all voters approved of how Trump is handling things, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters mirrored that sentiment almost exactly: 30 percent approved and 70 percent disapproved.

Inflation is where Trump's numbers are weakest. Just 24 percent of all voters approved of his handling of rising prices, while 76 percent disapproved — the worst rating of any policy area tested in the poll. Among rural voters, 28 percent approved and 71 percent disapproved.

Even on border security, which has been one of Trump's stronger issues throughout his second term, support has slipped into negative territory nationally for the first time — 49 percent approval versus 51 percent disapproval. Rural voters still lean toward approval on this issue at 54 percent to 45 percent, but the national trend is notable.

A Warning Sign From a Republican Pollster

Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster who co-conducts the Fox News survey alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, did not sugarcoat what the numbers mean.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

That shift is politically significant. Rural voters have provided the winning margins in countless competitive Senate and House districts. Even a modest decline in enthusiasm or turnout among this group could reshape the outcome of this year's midterm elections.

Farmers Are Feeling It Most

Behind the polling numbers is a farm economy under serious financial stress. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm bankruptcies surged 46 percent in 2025 compared to the year before — a sign that many agricultural operations are struggling to stay afloat.

The situation has grown worse in 2026. The escalation of conflict involving Iran has pushed up the cost of diesel fuel and fertilizer, two expenses that farming operations cannot easily avoid. Those higher input costs are squeezing already-thin profit margins and forcing some farmers to make difficult decisions about what they can and cannot afford to do.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, described the situation plainly in comments to MS Now.

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson said, explaining that his family has had to cut back on fertilizer use because "we just don't have the margin."

"It's tough, you know, very tough on us," Nelson added, as his multigenerational farm faces the prospect of bankruptcy.

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder offered a similarly stark picture in comments shared by Farm Action from an interview with US Farm Report.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said. "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade tensions with China have added another layer of difficulty. Reduced Chinese demand for American soybeans and other agricultural exports has left many farmers with weaker prices and fewer reliable buyers overseas.

On top of that, Trump drew additional criticism from farmers during a recent trip to Beijing, where he defended allowing Chinese entities to purchase American farmland, arguing that restrictions on foreign ownership would push land values down. For farmers already worried about foreign control of agricultural land, that position landed poorly.

The White House Pushes Back

Administration officials disputed the significance of the poll's findings, framing the numbers as a temporary snapshot rather than a reflection of where voters truly stand.

White House spokesman Kush Desai argued that the economy has remained strong under Trump's leadership, saying the U.S. economy has remained "resilient" and that "as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term."

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to Trump's 2024 election win as the more meaningful measure of public support, stating that "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda."

Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and that progress made so far is "just the beginning."

For now, though, farmers like Willis Nelson and Fred Yoder are focused less on political messaging and more on whether they can keep their operations running through another season of rising costs and uncertain markets.