Farmers Left in the Dark After Trump Administration Blocks Latest USDA Forecast Because the Numbers Contradict Trump’s Messaging

• American farmers depend on USDA pricing forecasts to keep their businesses afloat, but the Trump Administration withheld and redacted the latest report because it contradicted Trump’s messaging.

• Trump promised that tariffs will decrease the national deficit, but the May USDA forecast projected an  increase in agricultural trade deficit to $49.5 billion.

Officials Delayed Publication of the USDA May’s Economic Forecast to Give Time for Redactions

For American farmers, accurate data from The Department of Agriculture (USDA) is important to make sure that family farms and those in the agricultural business are able to make decisions about their produce. However, when the USDA released their report, there was no written analysis that is typically provided as a resource for businesses and farms. Even more alarming is the large trade deficit of $49.5 billion that is reported. 

Usually, these forecasts include written insights from USDA economists that break down global market forces, shifts in demand, and commodity-specific trends. This time, Trump officials delayed publishing the written analysis to give officials time to redact parts of the report before release—specifically pertaining to the deficit that runs counter to their messaging. 

Farmers Need Information

Producers from across the country rely on USDA reports to inform big decisions such as whether to plant more soybeans or pivot to wheat, or whether export markets like China are cooling off. For example, if a dairy producer in Wisconsin doesn’t know why dairy imports are climbing, they can’t anticipate pricing shifts or adjust their operations accordingly. Without the context, the numbers are just noise.

Keeping the Public’s Trust

Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber told Politico that the delay and lack of transparency raise concerns about political interference: “Objectivity is really key here and the public depends on it. To lose that trust would be terrible.” This comes as President Trump promised that the use of tariffs would decrease America’s trade deficits. However, as the report projects an increase in the trade deficit from $31.8 billion in fiscal 2024, the written analysis may have run contrary to the messaging of the Trump administration.