Conservative Think Tank Warns GOP Deportation Plan Could Cost Nearly $1 Trillion

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill includes plans to spend massive amounts of money on catching and deporting immigrants. The Republican-backed bill could carry nearly $1 trillion in economic costs, according to a new report from the conservative-leaning think tank the Cato Institute.

Billions for Enforcement, Pennies for Everything Else

The H.R. 1 bill alone proposes an astounding $168 billion for immigration and border security. This is a huge increase from current spending. Even without this new bill, immigration and border control account for two-thirds of the federal budget on law enforcement. 

To put it in perspective:

• Immigration enforcement would get 36 times more funding than efforts to fight tax fraud.

• It would receive 21 times more than what’s allocated for gun crime enforcement.

• And it would be eight times larger than the entire FBI budget.

Trillions in Fallout

However, the concern isn't just about the immediate spending on enforcement. It also involves the potential economic fallout if large numbers of immigrants are deported. Analysts project that mass deportation could add nearly $1 trillion to the bill's total cost over ten years. This is because immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, are significant contributors to the U.S. economy.

Studies indicate that if mass deportations continue, the U.S. economy could shrink by as much as $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion annually. This shrinkage would be comparable to, or even worse than, the impact of the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009. Immigrants pay billions in federal, state, and local taxes each year, including contributions to Social Security and Medicare. If they are removed, this tax revenue would disappear. 

Who Will Fill the Jobs?

Additionally, many industries, such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality, rely heavily on immigrant labor. Losing these workers could create large gaps in the workforce.

For example, some estimates suggest the removal of up to:

• Up to 1.5 million construction workers

• Around 225,000 farm workers

• 1.7 million in the food chain supply business

Losing this workforce would create massive labor gaps, potentially raising the cost of goods, pushing inflation higher, and slowing overall economic growth.

In reality, Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” will leave Americans with anything but a beautiful outcome. It will place a massive financial burden on taxpayers, who will be responsible for funding expanded federal services, including costly mass deportations. At the same time, by removing millions of immigrants who contribute to the economy, the government loses billions in tax revenue. That lost revenue will ultimately have to be made up by the rest of working America.